Some thoughts for the rally.
Advancers are making lower highs for the last two peaks so far in the top panel. This is worth watching to see if there is any momentum (middle panel) left on this rise. The Nasdaq Composite in the lower panel is trying to make a higher high just before noon NYC time.
SO the market might not have enough rally strength right now to keep going. It is still early in the day. But…. look at the same information on this long term chart below. When the data is in the middle of the range, there is not much help there. But extremes can be helpful. The blue lines (placed to the right of the actual spike) represent the spikes above 10% on the middle panel. This was the highest ever on my charts and came from near the lowest ever. I also found that it may/ may not occur on the lowest low, but they were all excellent clues to be ready for upside breakouts in the not to distant future if not immediately. It did not register any upside explosions above 10 all the way through 2007’s rocky market, or the downtrend in the first half of 2008 until the 2008 lows. It picked up both the 2008 low and the 2009 low. Messy in 2010 but the subsequent rally was big. Messy in 2011 but the subsequent rally was big. No trigger for Big Ben’s QE infinity, but a one month pullback after the announcement then the long term explosion higher between the two dashed line is what happened with QE. The 2016 signals were close to 10%. Both good. The January 2019 signal excellent. And one now, which is the biggest one ever. Even better than both the 2008 and 2009 lows. I guess $2 Trillion can do that.
It might be a smoking rally before the debt markets take over. Anyway, my short term zoomed in view in the top chart, says 2 lower highs already. Worth watching to see if it stabilizes or rolls back over.
I have done a few Market Buzz shows recently and the links provided below are a shortcut if you are interested. They are 30 minute segments.
This one was from Wednesday shortly after the rally started.
As I now have the new website rolling out, I am able to post a lot more content. Let me know what you think and what we can improve on.
For subscribers of my weekly newsletter, I’ll be holding a conference call Wednesday April 1st. If you would like to subscribe before the call, you can do that here with 40% off annual memberships using the coupon code NETWORTH1 Registration link is here –> Private Investors
Greg Schnell, CMT